I love the Columbia Political Review. When it takes itself seriously, it's almost as good as The Onion:

Labour is getting decimated in the local elections, currently running third behind both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. Although all results won't be available until the weekend, I can no longer see a scenario that lets Blair stay in office even to the end of the month. This election makes it crystal clear that the British public is deserting Labour in droves, and unless they want to go the way of the Liberals, supporting a Prime Minister as a party to their left steals their base, they need to act and act fast.

PM Gordon Brown by July 1. Tony goes on to be a member of the Lords and becomes as politically powerful as his predecessor John Major.

So a quick hop over to the BBC, for a dose of reality:

This would give the Tories a result on a par with its local election results achieved under William Hague's leadership in 2000.

But the Tories point out that it looks like being their biggest lead over Labour since John Major won the 1992 election.

Their biggest lead over Labour since 1992 is satisfied by almost any gain whatsoever. Anyone who thinks that a result 'on par with its local election results achieved under William Hague' is going to force a change in power, or that Blair is in the kind of danger Thatcher was--what would be necessary for a three-week shift to Gordon Brown--is living in a fantasy land. Or, I suppose, works as editor for Columbia's 'political review.'

Slaughter, if you're proven right, I'll buy you a round of your choice when I get back to NYC. Somehow, I'm not too concerned.